Trump appeals to certain Black voters. Will it be enough?

Kwame Kilpatrick is straightforward about supporting Donald Trump’s return to the White House and why it isn’t terrifying as a Black man in America.
“White people being racist is not a big issue for me,” he said. “My life doesn’t change because somebody white said something racist.”
Kilpatrick was known as America’s hip-hop mayor after being elected in 2001 as Detroit’s youngest leader at age 31. He was a charismatic star who quoted rap lyrics on the trail and sported a diamond-studded earring while challenging his party to be bold, speaking on stage at the 2004 Democratic National Convention.
That was until various scandals plagued his administration, forced his resignation and landed him in prison on public corruption crimes.
The 54-year-old Kilpatrick, released 20 years early when Trump commuted his sentence in 2021, has a quick barbershop delivery that hasn’t rusted.
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But today his message is aimed at peeling away disaffected Black voters from President Joe Biden in the critical swing state of Michigan.
“It’s a difference between a white guy (Trump) who says something and a white guy (Biden) who does something,” Kilpatrick told USA Today in an interview Monday, referring to then Sen. Biden’s support for the controversial 1994 crime bill that led to a mass incarceration of Black men.
While running in 2019, Biden apologized for his role in the crime bill, and a USA Today/Suffolk poll released earlier this month shows the vast majority of Black men and women in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan still favor the president far more than Trump.
Yet Republicans have been relentlessly chipping at the Black vote with messages of discontent about the economy, illegal immigration and culture war issues, as Trump’s team deploys high-profile surrogates at fast food restaurants, churches and barbershops in predominately African American communities.
Experts say this reveals a key part of the Trump campaign political strategy: Leveraging a growing pessimism among a segment of Black voters ‒ chiefly working-class men living in urban centers ‒ disenchanted with American systems as a whole.
“Many people are saying we might have to live with this idea that we will have a broken America,” said Terrence Johnson, a professor of African American Religious Studies at Harvard Divinity School.
In a 2022 Pew Research Center poll, 64% said the increased focus on issues of race and racial inequality has not led to improvement in the lives of Black people. Last year another 51% said they believe racism will worsen over their lifetimes, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos survey.
“People, particularly Black men, are having deep frustration,” Johnson said. “And so if that is the case, if we cannot change systemically the lives of most African American folk who are working class, then it turns into, ‘what can I do for my individual clan?'”
“So what’s happening is a deeper reckoning, and I think the easy way (for them) is ‘we vote for Trump,'” he added.
Other scholars say the numbers simply reflect a return to voting patterns that predated Barack Obama’s presidency and that always showed a certain percentage of Black support for Republicans.
But conservative activists and thought leaders insist these margins represent a realignment that better reflects the diversity of the Black community’s values.
“Black folks care about the same things that every other community cares about,” former Kentucky gubernatorial candidate Daniel Cameron, who Trump endorsed, told USA Todaay.
“They care about the economy, they care about making sure that there’s a better future for their kids and they want communities that are not bogged down by crime. And so I’m delighted to see that there’s an uptick in the numbers.”
The Biden campaign has revved up its spending on messaging and delivered stark warnings about what a Trump win could mean for Black communities.
At a speech in Philadelphia last month, Biden asked the mostly Black crowd what his rival would do had African Americans instead of a mostly white crowd stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6th, 2021.
“I don’t think he’d be talking about pardons,” Biden said.
The president listed a series of Trump gaffes and controversies, including wanting to tear gas people who protested George Floyd’s murder; calling the exonerated ‘Central Park Five’ guilty; and how Trump often invokes neo-Nazi Third-Reich terms.
Vice President Kamala Harris has been dispatched as well, headlining an event in June hosted by 100 Black of America Inc. while other surrogates have been sounding the alarm.
Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, which is focused on turning out voters in battleground states, told USA Today he thinks Black people considering Trump need to look at the substance of who he is, particularly as it pertains to their communities.
“I’m from New York. I know him and I know he’s never stood up for anything Black,” he said.
But Trump doesn’t have to win a majority of the Black vote or even a substantial portion, he just has to deprive Biden of enough voters to hurt him in key spots.
That’s because Biden beat Trump by a 92 to 7 margin among Black voters in 2020. In order to maintain the same level of support, the president must rake in 13 new Black votes for every vote he loses to his Republican rival, according to David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
Majorities of Black voters in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, including most Black men, strongly prefer Biden as their first choice, the USA Today/Suffolk survey found.
But the gender divide is where Trump could make a dent. The poll finds 6% of Black women and 16% of Black men in Pennsylvania support the former president, for instance.
Rowfele Roane, 22, of Philadelphia, said he voted for Biden last time but hasn’t seen much economic improvement in his neighborhood since.
“Everything is more expensive than it was back in 2020,” he said. “Stuff was a little more, I would say, smoother. It was easy to come by, especially funds, too.”
Roane, who works at his brother-in-law’s home health care business, said a lot of his peers think both candidates are racist.
“You can’t really bring your emotions in the political world,” he said. “You’re going to get your pros and cons. You’re not going to get all pros, so pick the one that’s best for you.”
In Michigan, where Biden won by roughly 3 percentage points in 2020, the gender divide is more pronounced. About 9% of Black women who responded to the USA Today/Suffolk poll said they will cast a ballot for Trump versus 22% of Black men who said the same.
Mourice Windham, 40, a forklift operator and truck driver in Detroit, said he appreciates Trump’s way of simplifying issues when he speaks.
The former president will be the better candidate in terms of cracking down on illegal immigration, concentrating on American workers and keeping the U.S. out of foreign wars, he believes.
“He’s been a standup guy,” Windham said. “I can’t take anything from him.”
Paleologos, who led the new poll, said inflation and the economy were the main engine for Black voters who want Trump’s return.
“That’s really at the core of people who have either switched to Trump or have voted for Trump in the past,” he said.
Among Black Pennsylvania voters, for instance, 38% overall said inflation and the economy is their most important issue when determining who to cast their ballot for this fall. Among Black Trump supporters that topic jumps to 52% who said it is most important.
The same thing happens in Michigan where 43% said inflation and the economy matters most, but that hops to 51% among those backing Trump.
Similarly, just 5% of Black voters in the critical battleground state listed immigration as their top issue. Among Black Trump supporters in Michigan that leaps to 20% who said it is the most important topic in 2024.
Tiffany Shipp, who lives in Detroit, said she’s leaning heavily toward Trump, and believes under him the situation along the U.S.-Mexico border would be better handled.
The 45-year-old Ford assembly line worker, who hasn’t voted since she backed Obama in 2008, said she was able to buy a house during the Trump years. She said she kept more money in her pocket compared to Biden’s time in office.
“I think everything is being stacked against hard-working folks like us,” she said. “What am I supposed to do? It’s really overwhelming right now.”
Shipp is well aware that as a Black woman her choice to support Trump will spark hostility from some family members and friends.
“I don’t care what most people think,” she said. “I know it may not be what everybody in my circle will be doing. I’m very conservative in many ways and I’m going to do what I think is best and exercise my right to vote.”
Being a Republican often comes with having your character being personally attacked in the Black community, said Diante Johnson, founder and president of the Black Conservative Federation, which has established a national political network of right-leaning activists.
“I tell people what’s important is your family and your situation,” he said. “What’s important is when you get up in the morning, the lifestyle that you live and that’s more important than how people think about you.”
Scholars who study Black voting trends, however, say there have always been a certain percentage of African Americans who continued to pull the GOP lever in the post-Civil Rights Movement era, when the two parties dramatically changed roles in regards to racial issues.
“What we’re seeing is a return to the pre-Obama levels of support for the Republican Party,” said Leah Wright Rigueur, an associate professor of history at Johns Hopkins University, who has written extensively about Black Republicans.
“In other words, the only thing that Trump has really done is brought Black Republicans home.”
Rigueur said political research shows when African Americans believe there is little difference between the two major parties in terms of racial outcomes or social justice causes, there is a substantial increase in the number of people who stay home or support long-shot third party contenders. With that comes a slight increase in the number voting Republican even amid loud charges of racial prejudice.
Political data found the vast majority of Black Americans considered Ronald Reagan to be a racist when he first ran for president in 1976, she said. Four years later those views hadn’t changed much, but Reagan still received about 14% of the Black vote coasting to victory.
Leading up to the 1980 presidential contest, Democratic President Jimmy Carter had a frayed relationship with Black congressional leaders and civil rights activists. By the late 1970s many in the Black community were questioning his commitment to their voter’s interests.
In 1978, for example, the Rev. Jesse Jackson spoke at a Republican National Committee meeting and received a standing ovation when he said Black voters would support the GOP if it looked after their interests.
A year later, Democratic Rep. Cardiss Collins, of Illinois, the first woman to lead the Congressional Black Caucus, didn’t invite Carter to speak at the group’s major fundraiser.
Carter, she said, had “nothing to say.”
“And I think that’s what we’re seeing right now,” Rigueur said.
Reporters Terry Collins, Deborah Berry and Todd Spangler contributed to this story